其他設(shè)備互聯(lián)網(wǎng)流量激增，預(yù)示傳統(tǒng)PC將遭遺棄？

　　附英文原文：

　　As Internet Traffic Grows， PCs Risk Being Left Behind

　　Tam Harbert

　　When you have a smartphone， an iPad （or another brand of tablet）， and an Internet-connected TV， will you really need a PC？ Today， the answer is probably yes. But， at least in the consumer market， the PC is in danger of being left behind.

　　That‘s what I got out of the data Cisco Systems Inc. （Nasdaq： CSCO） published on June 1 in its fifth annual Visual Networking Index Forecast， an attempt to predict trends based on a combination of analyst projections， Cisco’s own estimates and forecasts， and direct data collection.

　　The main finding： The amount of Internet traffic continues to explode， and that traffic is increasingly using vehicles other than the PC. If the forecast is even close to accurate， it spells continued prosperity for companies that build the Internet infrastructure and consumer electronics， particularly mobile devices， while indicating that PC manufacturers had better diversify， and fast.

　　By 2015， according to the forecast：

　　● Total global Internet traffic will quadruple， reaching 966 exabytes， almost one zettabyte， per year.

　　● The number of network-connected devices will be more than 15 billion， twice the world‘s population. There will be two networked devices per capita， up from one per capita last year.

　　● Internet users will number nearly 3 billion， more than 40 percent of the world’s projected population.

　　● Average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase fourfold， from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbit/s in 2015.

　　● One million video minutes -- the equivalent of 674 days -- will traverse the Internet every second.

　　● Average global IP traffic will reach 245 terabytes per second， equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie simultaneously every day.

　　● Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 levels to 6.3 exabytes per month.

　　Two of the most important trends noted in the report show how new devices are gaining on the PC. Read these numbers and you understand why PC manufacturers are desperately trying to gain traction in the tablet market.

　　First， more and more Internet traffic is coming from devices other than PCs. Last year， only 3 percent of consumer Internet traffic originated from non-PC devices， but by 2015 the non-PC share of consumer Internet traffic will grow to 13 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 33 percent， while TVs， tablets， smartphones， and machine-to-machine （M2M） modules will have traffic growth rates of 101 percent， 216 percent， 144 percent， and 258 percent， respectively.

　　If you look at video on the Internet， the swing away from PCs is even stronger. At the end of 2010， 92 percent of Internet video traffic originated from PCs. By 2015， that is expected to drop to 79 percent， with more than one-fifth of Internet video traffic coming from non-PC devices. By 2015， TVs will account for over 18 percent of Internet video traffic， demonstrating the growth in the adoption of Web-enabled TVs.

　　Second， the device mix is becoming increasingly portable and wireless. Last year， wired devices still accounted for most of the IP traffic -- some 63 percent. But by 2015， traffic from wireless devices is expected to exceed wired， with WiFi and mobile devices accounting for 54 percent versus only 46 percent for wired.

　　As the number and types of devices on the Internet continue to mushroom， the traditional PC is looking more and more like a dinosaur. Do you think it will survive？ What should the traditional PC makers do to avoid extinction？

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